Three Reasons Silver Will Definitely Break $50 This Year—And 3 Reasons It Certainly Won’t!

Can silver maintain its momentum in the months ahead?

The silver narrative has been around for as long as I’ve been investing. In fact, silver was my very first investment. As a young value investor, I was drawn in by the story—I’m sure you know the sales pitch by now:

That silver is one of the most undervalued assets on Earth.
That it has countless industrial applications.
That there’s a persistent supply-demand imbalance.
That it’s still nowhere near its old all-time high.
And of course, that it’s a real, physical asset that will outlast the fiat collapse.

Ah yes, that seductive silver story.

The one that compels you to accumulate your bodyweight in metal, convinced you’re the next Warren Buffett. And why not, you’ve watched Mike Maloney’s Hidden Secrets of Money, and you’re regularly tuning into your favourite silver experts on Palisades Gold Radio—triple digit silver, did you say? Better buy some more! Then, you wait.

And the days turn into weeks.

The weeks into months.

The months into years.

And for us long-haulers, the years—into decades. And still—nothing.

Just the all-too-familiar silver do-si-do: a 20% gain here, a 20% crash there, ad infinitum.

Before long, you’ve lived through a thousand and one false breakouts, and your patience starts to wear thin. Especially if you invested too heavily into that good ol’ silver narrative, as new metals investors often do.

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And those familiar faces still telling you: “The breakout is here!” … “Any day now!” … “This is it!!” …“Four-digit silver by year-end!”…“Silver squeeze incoming!”

If you’re paying attention, you soon learn the truth about these guys: they’re grifters. Selling narratives to sell YOU product. It's clickbait, and they tell people nothing about how silver actually behaves as an asset.

But stick around long enough and you will see for yourself that silver—it will let you down. Time and time again.

It’s the plucky contender that looks like a champion in training but always chokes when fight night arrives. Sure, there is a corrupted paper market manipulating the price—but that’s true of every market these days. The whole financial system is one giant, ridiculous fraud. And yet despite this, gold—which is far more threatening to the ponzi scheme—still manages to break out.

So what gives? Why are silver investors singled out for such a painful ride?

Part of the problem, in my view, is that the silver space is full of the aforementioned disingenuous, or deluded, voices. The silver “used car salesmen,” as I like to call them. Those who earn more money from you buying silver, than they ever have from owning it. Usually because they’re selling a newsletter, or the metal itself.

With the massive proliferation of channels and podcasts discussing metals, it’s never been easier to capitalize on the newfound passion of retail investors seeking to escape the fiat paradigm. So they do. Which is not to say they’re aren’t many genuine voices out there also, who simply love silver. Some a little too much. Because of its long history as the people’s money, silver’s cult is among the most fanatical out there (Bitcoin bros notwithstanding).

But the reality is, I love silver. It really is an amazing metal. Having said that, as an investor, I think it's unhealthy to own any asset while swimming in confirmation bias. And the silver space is dominated by a few loud voices who will always tell you everything you want to hear—while saying nothing about how the asset actually behaves over the long haul. Erratic, volatile and one of the worst performing assets during market downturns.

So, should we do away with the grand silver narrative altogether?

First it’s important to recognize how silver’s role has changed. For most of human history, silver was money—and for good reason. Not as rare or precious as gold, but far scarcer than copper or iron, silver struck a perfect balance. It was the people’s money: practical, beautiful, scarce, and easily divisible. Among silverbugs, the dream persists that one day silver will be restored to that monetary role. And while that’s not impossible, it’s certainly not the path we’re on today.

Over the past century, silver’s role has shifted. Unlike gold, which retains strong institutional and monetary demand, silver’s demand is overwhelmingly industrial. In ancient times—through the Roman Empire, the Renaissance, and beyond—silver stood beside gold, used in coinage, jewellery, and art. But the industrial revolutions of the 20th and 21st centuries brought thousands of new uses: medical technology, electronics, solar panels, EVs, missile systems, computing. The list keeps growing.

This is great news for long-term demand—so long as society doesn’t implode and go back to the stone age—which we shouldn’t discount. But in that scenario it would be the perfect form of money for trade and barter...so a pyrrhic victory would be ours; as we ride through the mad max wasteland with our bags of silver.

But in the slightly less apocalyptic scenarios, silver has largely faded from the monetary conversation. Gold, in contrast, has proven impossible to dislodge. For millennia, it’s served as a store of value for the wealthy. And despite two centuries of technological revolution, gold’s industrial use has barely grown. It remains what it has always been: rare, beautiful, enduring, and functionally useless—qualities that, ironically, make it perfect money.

And that’s the crux of the divergence between gold and silver. When the inevitable financial reset comes—and yes, it is coming—gold is already being positioned as the foundation. Central banks are buying at record levels. China keeps stacking. The BIS has reinstated gold as a Tier-1 asset. When the system resets, it will be reset around gold. There is, essentially, a guaranteed buyer.

Silver, sadly, isn’t part of that plan—even if, in my opinion, it absolutely should be. But as a result, there isn’t a massive reservoir of liquidity flowing into it as we head into the reset. And its price action doesn’t spike on fears of a global default. Instead it mirrors the dynamics of other commodities like copper or iron, having largely been written out of the monetary narrative.

And so, the divergence has grown. Gold continues to protect wealth—and has been the best-performing major asset over the last 25 years. Meanwhile, silver has chronically underperformed. The narrative remains compelling, but the performance hasn’t followed. Investors who went too heavy on silver a number of years back, are growing bitter. I hear it in conversations—frustration, disillusionment. After all, it’s been nearly 15 years, and silver still hasn’t reclaimed its 2011 high of $50/oz. Meanwhile, gold is up over 40% just in the past year.

So maybe I could end the article here—an obituary for silver. The dog of metals.

But I’ve always been long term bullish on silver. I just think it’s on a different path to that of gold. So I’ve learned the art of silver zen: patience, padawan. Which is why even I was left bemused when, quietly and with little fanfare, silver broke out of its long term range earlier this month. After countless false starts, it finally surged above $37/oz—a level not seen in over 14 years. For those who bought in during the last bull run, it’s been a long wait.

Even more intriguing, platinum—gold and silver’s weird cousin—joined the rally, up 40% in just a month. (More on that in my upcoming newsletter.) As any student of gold and silver knows, a genuine bonafide bull run in the metals, has to include all three. Until then, buyer beware. But I think it’s safe to say gold’s path is already laid. It is silver, we’ve been waiting on.

So with the white metals finally stirring, it’s hard not to wonder: could this time be different? Will silver finally deliver? Maybe. But this isn’t my first rodeo—and silver has a habit of bucking like an angry mule just when hope returns. Still, this breakout from a 15-year base is significant. But unlike the silver cult leaders, I’m not here to sell you a fantasy narrative.

What we need during these moments is clear thinking and a good perspective of the macro environment silver is breaking out into. That way we can make sense of the factors that could drive it higher, and where the narrative could fall apart.

So in the rest of this article, I’ll lay out three reasons why silver will definitely break its old nominal all-time high of $50 in 2025—and then three reasons it certainly won’t!

Because the truth is, there is a good case for both. And what follows is an honest take on where silver is at, and what might come next. So, let’s ask the question—could 2025 finally be the year silver rewards its long-suffering holders? Or is it, like so many times in the past...heading back to the doghouse fot just a little while longer?

I'll start with the bad news.....