Finding Safety In The Market Crash: Will Your Safe Haven Asset Fail?

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Hi everyone,

Over the past few days, we've witnessed the first wave of panic selling as markets responded violently to Trumps most recently announced tariffs, and the counter tariffs made by nations such as China. The selling has already set off a wave of second and third order consequences, as heading into Friday, hedge funds faced the steepest margin calls since the COVID crash of 2020—a deeply ominous signal.

As is often the case, those caught off guard are feeling panicked, including many in the gold and silver space who are getting a harsh lesson in how metals behave during a market crash. Silver dropped 8% on Thursday and another 8% on Friday—a painful irony considering many silver stackers had just been encouraged to take part in what was called a silver squeeze earlier in the week. That campaign, heavily pushed by a number of the large gold and silver accounts on X, urged people to load up on physical silver—just days before its price collapsed.

Beyond the physical metals, gold and silver miners also took a heavy hit heading into the weekend, with many stocks down over 10% in a single day—a steeper drop than even some major tech names. While this was entirely predictable for those familiar with how markets behave during liquidity shocks, confusion is widespread among those who don't understand what's really happening.

Some are already asking why supposed safe haven assets like gold and silver are falling. That confusion stems largely from influencers in the metals space who make a living selling comforting narratives when it comes to gold and silver, yet rarely take the time to educate their audiences on how these metals actually behave in times of market chaos. That’s exactly what I aim to clear up in this article.

This is an updated and revised version of a piece I originally published in 2024—written to prepare readers for the kind of crash we’re now watching play out. A common misconception is that gold and silver don’t drop during market crashes. But in a liquidity crisis, things work differently. By liquidity crisis, I mean an unexpected market event that forces investors and hedge funds to sell off assets quickly. In those moments, almost everything is sold at once, including gold.

Not because it's unwanted, but because gold is highly liquid and hedge funds will often sell some of their gold positions—which may have dropped just a couple of percent—in order to cover the margin calls on equities positions which are now down 20–30%. As such, it's a market dynamic we need to get our heads around.

Gold gets sold not because it’s weak, but because it’s one of the few assets that can be sold quickly without massive slippage. It’s a fire extinguisher used to put out a fire somewhere else. Silver, however, is a different beast entirely. Its behavior in a crash is far more volatile and so it shouldn't be conflated with gold.

In fact, understanding this distinction is crucial—and it's one of the key reasons why knowing financial history matters. But don't expect the gold and silver newsletter sellers, or Bitcoin bros to tell you what I am about to share. For these people, the narrative is always bullish. The numbers will always go up! Reality, of course, is far more nuanced, and the term 'safe haven' is thrown around far too much.

So let’s take a look at what really happens to the aforementioned asset classes during a market crash. Below, I’ve included some tables showing the annual returns for equities, gold, silver, and bitcoin. Each table spans a three-year window—before, during, and after the crash—to give us context.

The final column focuses in on the actual decline during the crash itself. This way, we get a much more accurate understanding of how each asset is impacted when liquidity starts flowing in the opposite direction. Having gone through this article, you will understand what is truly a safe haven in a crash, and what is not, based on actual history. Then, at the end, I will tell you about what I think comes next in terms of the current sell off.

Let's get to it!

2000 Dot Com Crash

Looking back at the Dot Com crash, silver was the hardest hit in the first year, though the decline wasn't quite as severe as what we’d later see in 2008 and 2020. Still, it clearly didn’t act as a safe haven—and more importantly, it failed to recover for several years. That’s because silver behaves more like a commodity during major economic downturns. It tends to sell off heavily in crashes and only begins to recover after the worst is over.

Once the dust settles, though, silver often rebounds sharply—and this is where it shines. It has a tendency to play catch-up to gold, sometimes even overshooting it during the recovery phase. That post-crash surge is what silver is really good at—not holding up during the crash, but outperforming after it.

Gold, on the other hand, behaves very differently. During the 2000 Dot Com crash, gold didn’t escape the initial wave of selling—it fell as much as 21% during the panic phase. But that decline was short-lived. Unlike silver, gold is still widely understood as a form of money, and is quickly turned to by the wealthiest families in the world, as well as central banks, during acute crises. The initial sell-off in gold was primarily driven by hedge funds liquidating paper gold positions to meet margin calls, but this was quickly countered by a surge in physical demand as investors rushed to safety.

Incredibly, even though equities continued to fall for another three years, gold had already recovered most of its initial drawdown by the end of 2000, finishing the year down only -6%. Meaning that in the uncertainty of the crash and subsequent economic slowdown, massive sums of money was being rotated out of other asset classes and into gold.

2008 GFC

Heading into the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), equities had just regained their previous all-time highs from the year 2000 when the markets collapsed again. In contrast, gold had climbed from around $200/oz in 2000 to over $1,000/oz by 2008—a massive 500% increase in just seven years. So while equity investors had spent nearly a decade simply trying to break even, gold holders were sitting on substantial gains. Of course, the gains themselves were representative of the destruction of value elsewhere. Gold was merely keeping score.

As with previous crashes, equities were hit hardest in the initial sell-off, with the drawdown extending into 2009 for a total decline of around 50%. Silver once again behaved like a commodity and suffered steep losses alongside the broader commodity sector, which tanked on fears of a global depression. Silver was actually one of the hardest hit asset classes. However, in the post-crash recovery, it joined gold to take part in a powerful bull run, culminating in a blow-off top in 2012, when it briefly touched $50/oz.

It’s also worth noting—though not shown in the charts—that gold and silver mining stocks were hit even harder than the metals. This is always the case as miners are often held by hedge funds, and junior and mid tier miners are typically tiny in size, comparatively speaking, to companies that make up the major indexes. As such, it doesn't take too much selling to crash their prices, which is why many miners saw losses of 70–90%. In most cases worse than the declines of even the most speculative parts of the stock market like tech. This highlights a critical dynamic you need to be aware of; mining stocks are among the worst assets to hold going into or during a market crash. It's only at the bottom—after the dust settles—that loading up on quality miners is a good idea.

Turning back to gold, as in 2000, it dropped in the early stages of the GFC crash alongside everything else. Big money was selling anything liquid to survive the implosion of their equities positions. But once again, charts don’t always tell the full story. While gold fell roughly 23% during the crash, it had already gained 25% earlier that year and was up 500% since 2001. So, in reality, gold investors had little to worry about. The drawdown was sharp but brief—and gold actually finished the year up 3%.

This underscores one of gold’s most underappreciated strengths: in that it tends to rise before a crash, often anticipating trouble well in advance. That anticipatory move provides built-in protection. For long term holders its a small scratch, when others a facing a gushing wound. We saw this dynamic play out in both the Dot Com crash and the GFC—and now, interesting parallels can be drawn with where we are in 2025.

Gold has already risen around 40% over the past 12 months, once again signaling that it sniffed out that trouble coming. If it drops 10–20% in a broad market selloff, as has happened historically, that would only erase a few months of recent gains—not the entire move. At that point what tends to follow is sophisticated capital rushes into physical gold out of fear of what comes next. Meaning the decline is quickly reversed.

But here’s a key point that often catches people off guard—while the paper price of gold may fall during a crash, the physical price can decouple and even rise. So for those waiting to buy the dip that occurs in the price as a result of the dynamics I am laying out, be warned. Bullion dealers frequently run out of stock during crises, as seen in both 2008 and 2020. Meaning the price you pay for an ounce of physical gold, or silver for that matter, will bare little resemblance to the paper price your seeing quoted in the markets.

That’s why it’s crucial to have your long-term gold position—your wealth foundation—in place before the crash hits. Keeping some liquidity aside to take advantage of discounted opportunities is a smart move. But when it comes to physical gold you're holding for protection, you want to positioned ahead of time. It's quite likely when the greater depression hits, the stock of physical metals will vanish overnight. If for whatever reason you do find someone willing to part with their gold, perhaps in the secondary market, they will demand a massive premium.

COVID Crash 2020

The COVID crash was short-lived, largely because central banks and governments responded with unprecedented speed and force—turning on the money taps and throwing everything, including the kitchen sink, at the system to keep it afloat. And while that intervention did work in the short term, it came at an enormous cost: surging inflation, ballooning public and private debt, and a new layer of fragility baked into the financial system.

One of the most toxic consequences was the rapid rise in interest rates that followed. This essentially destroyed the capital of the banking system, who are loaded up on large amounts of long-duration government bonds. Many have seen their equity wiped out—with unrealized losses that still lurk as skeletons in the closet. At some point, the piper will have to be paid and much like in the 1929-1933 period we will see a cascade of bank and pension fund failures. But I digress!

Looking at how different asset classes performed in 2020, we saw a familiar pattern. Equities and silver crashed hard once again, while gold—despite an initial drop—remained relatively stable and recovered quickly. Gold had again been rising strongly in the years leading into the crash and continued higher during 2020 up until the brief pull back in the crash, cushioning the blow for holders and once again proving its role as a reliable protector of wealth.

Equities were very exposed to the panic and liquidity drain, as was silver, which again collapsed in value. In this instance, by almost 40%. Again, understanding this dynamic is crucial for structuring your portfolio going into a high risk crash moment. Then there’s Bitcoin. Unlike in the Dot Com or GFC crashes, Bitcoin existed in 2020—and its performance reflected its nature as an asset that is very much correlated with market liquidity. While it surged during periods of aggressive liquidity injections, including following the crash, it falls sharply as soon as liquidity began to dry up.

Because the COVID crash was brief, so the charts don’t fully capture this, but when we examine the peak-to-trough drawdown, Bitcoin had the worst performance of the four asset classes. This is no surprise. Bitcoin and most cryptocurrencies are built on speculative capital. In a crash, they become highly illiquid—and as such, they are not safe havens. They behave more like highly leveraged tech stocks.

Just like with silver miners, Bitcoin is not where you want to be during a crash. That said, if you believe the system will once again be reflated—and that’s a belief worth challenging in the current macro environment—then yes, Bitcoin could present a strong buying opportunity at the depths of a crash. But this only works if you understand what role it plays in your portfolio. You must be clear about what you own for safety, and what you own for speculation—and act accordingly.

So What Did We Learn?

Clearly, if we fail to analyze history and make sense of the market dynamics, and instead rely on the self styled gurus, crypto bros, and financial car salesmen, we risk getting seriously hurt in the kind of crash that is now ensuing. There are some big nuances to these market crashes and to survive their unraveling we need to understand the true behavior of asset classes. Especially those we own, and I have said it before but will say it again, the term safe haven is thrown around far too casually—and often applied to assets that have no business wearing that label. An asset that falls 50-90% in a panic is not a safe haven—it’s a safe falling from a sixth floor balcony.

As highlighted, yes gold falls during a crash—but much less than everything else. It also typically rises going into the crash, meaning the drawdown often doesn't lead to a significant decline for the year. As such it remains the one true safe haven, protecting ones wealth better than anything else during systemic crisis. This is why secured physical gold bullion should always be the foundation of your personal wealth pyramid. Given it not only protects you from a crashing market, but from the entire system crashing also.

Silver, on the other hand, is not a safe haven in the midst of a liquidity crash. Because it acts like a commodity—and commodities plunge during panic-driven selloffs. Knowing this, you now know more than 95% of the silver gurus online. If we look back to the great depression as an example, commodity prices fell in real terms by some 80% from their pre-collapse highs, and remained down for decades. Of course, physical silver remains extremely valuable in all scenarios, and especially a system reset. While its price might crash in the current ponzi system, it's still a real, tangible asset—and in the aftermath of a collapse, silver could be one of the most valuable things to own. So I own silver for these reasons.

My biggest word of caution would of course be gold and silver miners. These are not the things you want to own going into a major unwind. There are opportunities for life changing wealth to be made in them by buying them at the right time during the collapse. But going into it, you want to be in securely held physical gold and liquid short term assets like treasuries and cash, ready to buy. Learning how to use my wealth pyramid to structure your portfolio properly as market conditions evolve will help you to do that.

Bitcoin? It's a speculation. It has been a powerful one during the good times—especially if you bought early and took profits—but it should never be mistaken for a vehicle of wealth preservation. And if we are heading into a global depression—which I believe is where this road ultimately leads—history tells us speculative assets are the worst place to be. Similarly, looking at who the major players in Bitcoin are and who or indeed what, they represent, I think you have to think long and hard about where that story ends.

What Comes Next

Looking ahead, I feel my recent calls for a major market event are now playing out. But let me be clear, this is only phase one. What we’re seeing now is just the start, and at some point the selling will taper off for a time. Then there will be big rallies to the upside—powerful ones—that will convince many that the worst is over. But it will be a false dawn, one of many.

This is how bear markets drag people into financial ruin. Through false hope, and the disbelief of the masses, who have been purposely conditioned to believe that the Fed is always going to bail out the markets. I would seriously question that bias. Already I see people saying underneath my videos and in comments on X things like 'the crash will be over in a few days, they will have to bail out the markets, they have no choice'.

My advice, is to avoid faulty thinking like this. It is purely a product of pre-conditioning. Something the financial alchemists have instilled in people to ensure that when the great unwind does occur, as many individuals as possible are drowned in the flood. The correct response to what we're seeing is to remind ourselves that the paradigm has to change at some point. And whilst we don't know precisely how this unfolds, its imperative we take action to address the many risks manifesting before us.

The good news, is we’re early in terms of where this one might ultimately go. That means there is still time—time to prepare, protect, and position ourselves wisely for what’s ahead. Whether it’s your 401(k), pension, savings, or property, and taking steps now to shield these assets from systemic risks like The Great Taking—this should be a top priority for anyone serious about safeguarding their future.

But we mustn't delay on this, because the more chaotic this gets, the harder it will be for most people to think clearly, take definitive action, or even know what actions they should be taking. Clearly, the more we understand the dynamics of a reset, the more likely we are to make it through these next five years with our wealth in-tact.

This is the work I’ve devoted myself to becoming an expert in for over a decade a now. Studying market cycles, monetary history, financial resets, confiscations and property right theft, liquidity flows like the ones laid out above—both to protect my family and so I can help others prepare for what comes next.

Over the past 3 years, this has been the focus inside my private community and in my group coaching program, getting others financially ready for exactly what’s now unfolding. I’ve been meeting regularly with those who completed my coaching—and I can say with confidence that they were all already well-positioned ahead of this crash. Which is always the goal. As well as being prepared for the many other second, third and fourth order effects that may eventually arise.

Sadly, the same can’t be said for much of the gold and silver space. Many were caught off guard—much like tech-heavy investors—and are now sitting on losses of 20–30%, with some in far worse shape. Just scrolling through my feed, I’ve seen countless posts from people who were heavily invested in miners going into this selloff. If the downturn deepens, those losses will only compound.

In my recent interview with David (Rogers Webb) he reminded us that few will have the foresight to take action, given they fall prey of their own biases, deluding themselves all the way to the bottom that it's only a temporary blip. And what about those heading into retirement? The situation for them is even more serious.

Many have already seen the real value of their pensions decline by 20–50% over the past five years. If this crash deepens, everyday men and women could be left with next to nothing as they head into retirement and facing a period of widespread hardship for which most are neither practically prepared nor psychologically equipped.

Clearly this is not the time for wishful thinking or self-soothing narratives. What we’re experiencing is the natural consequence of injecting massive amounts of debt and liquidity into the system, for far too long. A cycle that has played out many times before in history, and so can be understood, and prepared for.

That’s why I’m reopening group coaching for investors this May—and it will be the final group of the year. Given what we’re facing, I believe this could be the most important one yet for those who attend, as we will be able to discuss what is happening in real time as part of the coaching.

In coaching we’ll meet live on Zoom as I walk you through the strategies I developed and will be using personally—not just to protect wealth and property during turbulent times, but to grow it when opportunities arise. You’ll also gain access to specialist workshops, tools, and a private community of like-minded people working toward the same goals.

If you’d like to learn more about how coaching could help you and your family protect what you’ve built—and thrive on the other side of this—send me a private message. I’d love to chat with you about how we can get you positioned for what’s next.

Wishing you peace and clarity in the days ahead,

— Mike